Ajalooline Ajakiri. The Estonian Historical Journal http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA <p>Ajalooline Ajakiri on eelretsenseeritav akadeemiline ajakiri, mis ilmub Tartu Ülikooli ajaloo ja arheoloogia instituudi juures.<br> “Ajalooline Ajakiri. The Estonian Historical Journal” is peer-reviewed academic journal of the Institute of History and Archaeology, University of Tartu.</p> en-US janet.laidla@ut.ee (Janet Laidla) Ivo.Volt@ut.ee (Ivo Volt) Tue, 21 Jun 2022 06:43:49 +0300 OJS 3.1.2.4 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss 60 The zenith of the Malthusian or Western European marriage pattern in Estonia http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.01 <p>This article analyses the trends and spatial patterns of i) the mean age at first marriage and ii) the proportion of people who remained single by the age of 45 for Estonian men and women born in the latter half of the 19th century. First, trends in these two indicators and for the two sexes are analysed for people born in 1850–99. Second, spatial patterns for both indicators and both genders are investigated at the municipality level for the cohorts of 1875–94. Third, this spatial data is linked to other socio-economic and cultural variables derived mostly from the censuses in order to explain the causes of the spatial clustering of marriage indicators.</p> <p>The theoretical reasoning for this article rests on the work of Thomas Robert Malthus and John Hajnal. Malthus is famous for explaining the demographic-economic dynamics of a traditional agrarian society in which periodic increases in mortality occur, lowering population numbers that have reached the carrying capacity (limit of available food) of an agrarian society. But Malthus (1798) was also the first to describe a phenomenon that was present in the upper and middle classes of his contemporary Britons, which also resulted in containing population growth. To be more precise, Malthus observed that people got married in their late twenties (thus postponing the start of their childbearing period); and that a considerable proportion of people remained single (thus they did not bear any children at all).</p> <p>Thomas Hajnal (1965) used considerable census material from the late 19th and early 20th centuries to place these observations on a sounder foundation. He claimed that a unique marriage system was prevalent in the countries of Western Europe. Namely, people married late (women around the age of 25, men around the age of 29) and 10 or more percent of the population remained single. Hajnal hypothesised that European uniqueness in this regard could in fact be linked to a higher standard of living in Europe from the Early Modern period onwards. Several economic historians have recently claimed that this was in fact the case, and that the Western European marriage pattern was one of the causes of European economic headway compared to other regions of the world (for example van Zanden, de Moor and Carmichel 2019).</p> <p>In the case of Estonia, little research has been conducted on the prevailing marriage system. Heldur Palli (1984, 1988) has studied the demographic situation in a few parishes during the 18th century and has shown that the Western European marriage pattern was present in the Estonian countryside in the late 18th century, if it can be assumed that these parishes constitute a representative sample of the country. Later researchers have cited Palli and early 20th century census and population statistics material to make the same claim.</p> <p>Here a novel data set, the Estonian Family Register, is used to analyse marital dynamics during the time of general societal modernisation in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Gortfelder (2020) has previously used and described the Family Register. Its main advantage is that cohort analysis can be used, which makes it possible to precisely pinpoint the values of mean age at people first married and the proportion of persons remaining unmarried by the age of 45. There are also disadvantages, the greatest of which is the issue that the data for some municipalities is wholly or partially missing due to the ravages of the Second World War.</p> <p>The analysis shows that for men and women born in 1850–1899, the mean age at first birth was stable. For men it was at 29–30 and for women at 25–26 years of age. Regarding persons who remained unmarried, change was slightly more pronounced. The proportion of women rose from 15 to 18 percent, while that of men rose from 9 to 13 percent.</p> <p>Spatial patterns of mean age at first marriage are mostly the same for both men and women. Namely, marital age is higher in urban areas and in the counties of Viljandi, Valga, Tartu, and Võru. The greatest sex differences are found in the West Estonian islands. From the perspective of women, marriage occurred relatively late in these areas; for men the situation is the opposite. The youngest marital ages are evident in Petseri County. The picture is mostly the same regarding the proportion of persons who were not married by the age of 45.</p> <p>In the studied cohorts, there are more single people (by the age of 45) in urban areas and the counties of Viljandi, Valga, and Tartu. Regarding women, Lääne County also had high values. Once again, the western islands have a very different rank by sex. A sizeable proportion of women remained single by the age of 45, while only a small percentage of men remained bachelors.</p> <p>Finally, a number of variables can explain the spatial patterns of mean age at first marriage and the proportion of persons remaining single by the age of 45. For example, the sex ratio of young adults is a crucial factor. If there were relatively few men in an area, more women remained single and married late. Also, variables related to economics are important. Agrarian areas with a more market-oriented economic structure featured later marriage and a larger percentage of single men.</p> Copyright (c) 2021 University of Tartu, authors http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.01 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0300 The reception of Marxism and criticism of dogmatic Marxism in the Estonian area, 1905–16 http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.02 <p>In Estonian historiography, the revolutionary year of 1905 has been described as a starting point for subsequent political changes in 1917 and 1918. Hence many authors have highlighted the importance of political development that led to the foundation of the first Estonian political parties in 1905. However, the ideological differentiation of Estonian political thought between the revolutionary years of 1905 and 1917 has been studied less. The aim of this article is to analyse the political debates on Marxist theory that took place in the Estonian area of the Baltic provinces from 1905 to 1916.</p> <p>The leaders of the Estonian socialist movement first became acquainted with Marxist theory through German and Russian socialist literature. Since 1905, various texts by socialist authors were also available to a wider audience in Estonian. First and foremost, the works of German social democrats were published in Estonian. During 1910–14, the first volume of Karl Marx’s Capital was translated into Estonian. While it had often previously been argued that socialism benefits all oppressed people, Marxist ideology was now presented as a scientific theory that explained economic development and protected the interests of industrial workers in a class society.</p> <p>The article claims that during the period from 1905 to 1916, recognised experts on Marxist ideology emerged among Estonian socialists. In addition to Marxist tactics, Estonian socialist authors discussed theoretical issues such as the material conception of history. In these discussions, the personal conflicts between Estonian socialists as well as their ideological disagreements became evident. More broadly, these discussions were shaped by earlier ideological debates among European socialists at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century.</p> <p>The article also argues that during the period considered, several Estonian left-wing thinkers questioned the validity of Marxism. Influenced by Bernstein’s revisionist ideas, these thinkers criticised Marxism as a one-sided and dogmatic ideology. They claimed that Marxism was just another theory with both strengths and weaknesses. However, Estonian social democrats who embraced Marxism as a scientific theory responded to such criticism and defended the materialist view of society.</p> <p>The debates on Marxist theory considered here provide evidence of the ideological differentiation of Estonian left-wing political thought. From 1905 to 1916, numerous socialist texts in Estonian presented various approaches for understanding Marxist ideology. Thus, one can witness an intensified reception of Marxism in the Estonian area during that period. More specifically, these ideological debates reveal new facets of the political views of Estonian socialists who later affected the course of Estonian history as communist revolutionaries or as members of the Estonian Constituent Assembly.</p> Copyright (c) 2021 University of Tartu, authors http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.02 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0300 Causes of death among Swedish peasants during migration to Southern Ukraine in 1782–83 http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.03 <p>Pärast seda, kui Jedisani piirkond Bugi ja Dnipro jõgede vahel tänase Ukraina lõunaosas liideti Vene impeeriumiga ja Nogai nomaadid alalt lahkusid, alustas Vene valitsus selle koloniseerimist. Ühed esimesed asunikud olid rootsi talupojad Hiiumaalt. Vene valitsuse plaane takistas asjaolu, et suur osa kolonistidest suri peagi. Surmade põhjust ei ole seni põhjalikult uuritud. Esitame hüpoteesi, et rootsi talupoegade peamine surmapõhjus oli nakkushaiguse epideemia, mille võis vallandada katk. Artikli põhiallikateks on esimesed rootslaste poolt rajatud Gammalsvenskby koloonia kirikuraamatud ja perekondade nimekiri, mis koostati aastal 1781. Meetodina on kasutatud faktor- ja klasteranalüüsi.</p> Copyright (c) 2021 University of Tartu, authors http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.03 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0300 Women’s service in the armed forces during World War II in British and Soviet publications of the 1940s http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.04 <p>Artikli eesmärk on uurida ja võrrelda, kuidas Briti ja Nõukogude ajalookirjanduses on kajastatud ja iseloomustatud naiste osalemist Teises maailmasõjas. Autor jõuab järeldusele, et üks ühine joon Nõukogude ja Briti ajalookirjanduses on asjaolu, et mõlemad riigid asusid naiste osalust aktiivselt kajastama juba enne sõja lõppu, eesmärgiga värvata sõjateenistusse nii palju naisi kui võimalik. Sõja järel vähenes naiste tegevust sõjas kajastavate trükiste arv märgatavalt. Nõukogude ja Briti tekstides oli teisigi sarnaseid elemente, näiteks nende jutustav stiil ning tekstide sügav ideologiseeritus. Samas leidus ka erinevusi, näiteks kirjeldati sõjategevuses osalevaid naisi märgatavalt erinevalt.</p> Copyright (c) 2021 University of Tartu, authors http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.04 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0300 Algorithms study museum objects: using the machine learning model Sälli to assess the durability of museum objects http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.05 <p>The primary task of museums is to preserve museum objects in the form of physical objects. Despite its apparent simplicity and comprehensibility, damage to man-made objects – artefacts – is a complex and complicated field. Damage processes are grouped as being physical, chemical, mechanical, and biological. In most cases, different processes work together, damaging the materials and structure of the artefacts. A number of factors, the most important of which are the composition and structure of materials, environmental conditions, and human impacts, affect damage processes. It is very difficult, and in most cases impossible, to take all these factors into account. At the same time, modelling the aging of museum objects is especially important for their successful preservation. Modelling of damage processes makes it possible to assess the extent of such processes (which objects have been damaged and what the degree of damage is), the speed of damage processes, and thereby changes in the number of damaged objects over time, and finally, the effectiveness of possible management measures.</p> <p>In this article, we discuss the machine learning model Sälli, which predicts the durability of museum objects. For this purpose, the machine learning model uses data from MuIS (Estonian Museum Information System). The condition of objects is assessed in MuIS with four values: ‘good’, ‘satisfactory’, ‘poor’, and ‘very poor’. Almost 3.7 million condition assessments have been entered into MuIS. The development of a condition prediction model based on these data requires at least pairs of consecutive condition assessments in order to attempt to determine what correlates with the change in condition, whether it be one or another event, or a property (nature, material, age, techniques) of a museum object, or some combination of such factors. There are more than 1.4 million such pairs among the museum objects with several condition assessments. Almost 32,000 of them, or a little over 2%, consist of two different condition assessments, i.e., they indicate a change in condition. According to the data entered in MuIS, almost 30,000 museum objects, i.e., less than one percent of all museum objects, have been subject to a change in condition.</p> <p>As data points, we used at least two condition assessments for each museum object, to which we added the characteristics of the respective museum object and other features that help to predict the deterioration of the condition of the museum object. These data included static data related to the museum object: museum, museum collection, nature, material, material group, technology, exhibitability, and dating. As additional information, we used the history of the museum object, i.e., a summary of the events related to the museum object, taking into account only the events that took place during the condition assessment (because we do not have information on the future). The model finds the probability that the condition of the museum object will deteriorate in the next n years. If the probability of deterioration is greater than or equal to a set threshold, the model responds with ‘deterioration’. In finding the optimal decision threshold, we used a 10-year forecast period, i.e., we trained the decision-makers to predict deterioration over the next 10 years.</p> <p>The best results were obtained using the decision forest algorithm, which was able to identify 92% of deteriorating museum objects with 50% accuracy. This model was also used to create the Sälli prototype. The task of the Kratt Sälli prototype is to draw the attention of museum staff to museum objects, the condition of which may deteriorate in the next 10 years and the situation of which should therefore be reviewed. For testing, a prototype of the 1,000 highest-risk museum objects from that museum was added to each test museum. To test the usefulness and usability of the machine learning model predictions, we created a simple web application that was tested in pilot museums. We found that the available data have the potential to predict deterioration, but the data still need to be improved and the model trained on them is not yet mature enough.</p> Copyright (c) 2021 University of Tartu, authors http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.05 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0300 In memoriam Enn Tarvel http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.06 Copyright (c) 2021 University of Tartu, authors http://ojs.utlib.ee/index.php/EAA/article/view/AA.2021.3-4.06 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0300