In the article the following 2 theses are examined fact-based:
1. „Many countries have a so high public debt that a return to a higher leading interest of the European Central Bank (ECB) is not possible any more.“
2. „If it comes to a clear interest increase, heavy real-economic frictions or even the insolvency of various countries can be prevented only by a partial debt relief.“
In the analysis are shown the magnitude of the low interest rate policy and the quantitative Easing (QE) of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the one hand, and on the other hand the public debt as well as the interest to be paid on that debt resulting from higher interest rates are examined for selected member countries of the EEMU (France, Germany, Italy Spain).
As a consequence it appears that with a lasting reincrease of the level of interest rates (by increasing the leading interest rate of the ECB) and/or an end of the loan purchase programme within the scope of the QE for many states of the EWWU the ability in the debt service will not be possible any more. High budget deficits would lead to heavy economic frictions.
Summarizing for the economic and political stability of many states: An exit from low interest rate policy and QE will be only possible – if there is an ongoing lack of alternatively sustained reforms in economic and financial policy –if it comes to a sustained debt relief in the EEMU.