Javier Mileis "Reformkurs der Motorsäge" in Argentinien: eine erste kritische Bestandsaufnahme

Abstract

A first critical assessment is provided of the economic reforms initiated by Argentine President Javier Milei since his inauguration in December 2023. Building on the severe structural crisis that characterized Argentina's economy-marked by recession, hyperinflation, extemal imbalances, and rising poverty-the study outlines Milei's fiscal, monetary, and trade policy agenda. Central elements include drastic budget consolidation through spending cuts, subsidy reductions, and privatizations; a radical simplification of the tax system; labor market deregulation; restrictive monetary policies with steps towards dollarization; and extensive trade and investment liberalization. The analysis evaluates these measures against two hypotheses: (1) neoliberal policies can stimulate quantitative economic parameters in the sense of neoliberal defined growth in the short term; (2) even successful neoliberal growth policies permanently worsen the living conditions of the broad mass of the population and therefore cannot ensure long-term growth. Evidence suggests that while fiscal consolidation and disinflation have been partially successful, they come at the cost of declining domestic demand, rising inequality, and social unrest. The paper concludes that Milei's "chainsaw" reform strategy embodies the inherent tensions of neoliberalism: short-term stabilization through austerity and liberalization versus long-term risks of social destabilization, weakened demand, and potential relapse into crisis.