Prediction of Factors of Job Performance Success, Using the Example of the 14th Basic Officer Training Course


  • Ivo Silbaum
  • Kersti Kõiv




The aim of this study is to propose a uniform basis for the appraisal of job performance of cadets based on the analysis of five factors that infl uence job performance. This is an empirical study. The data was gathered from the 14th BOTC (2010 – 2015), and then analysed using various statistical analysis methods (factor analysis, regression, correlation and average comparison). Based on the result of the analysis it was found that the weighted average grade had a success rate of 12.2% in predicting future job performance, but could not predict the consolidated results. It also became evident that of the five factors, the best predictor of successful future job performance was the assessment of leadership qualities by fellow students. The study focused more on the construct of the task performance than it did on the contextual performance. Finally, it was found that the results of the general physical test were most closely connected to motivation. However, due to the fact that it is impossible to use the results of the general physical test to predict the success of future job performance or any of its constructs in a statistically relevant way, a proposal was made to exclude the results of the general physical test from the assessment criteria, or rather to use it as a form of non-differentiated assessment. Furthermore, it was discovered that the degree of participation in extra-curricular activities is solely connected to task performance, and had a predictive success rate of 11%. The results of the analysis proved that the results from the “discipline” category are closely connected to task performance and loosely connected to the success of future job performance as well as to the motivation construct. By itself the discipline result had a predictive rate of 16.1% for successful future job performance. In addition, the regression analysis of the collected results of the five factors, and the success of future job performance showed that when compiling a ranking to appraise a cadet’s job performance, the general proposal should only be comprised of an assessment of leadership qualities by fellow cadets. When taken separately this is the best predictor of a platoon leader’s job performance success and when combined with the collected results of all constructs it becomes diluted within the other factors and does not form a model. Counterarguments were also found, and approximate relative importance of the factors was calculated by weighing. In the event that the leadership assessment of students of the ENDC would remain unchanged, a proposal was made to use a ranking method to determine relative importance when compiling an appraisal of cadet job performance success. For the final result, the leadership assessment would form 57%, the discipline factor 28%, the weighted average grade 8%, and the activeness of participating in extra-curricular activities 7%.


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