HIRMUKULTUURI LOOMINE MOODSAS HÜBRIIDSÕJAS VENEMAA JA ÕPPUSE ZAPAD 2017 NÄITEL

Creating a Culture of Fear in Modern Hybrid Warfare: The Case of Russia’s Zapad 2017 Military Exercise

Abstract

The growing role of information warfare has had a significant impact on contemporary international conflicts and is redefining national military strategies. The widespread development of various forms of communication (i.e. internet, social media) over the past decades has created a favourable environment for information warfare to proliferate, offering influential international actors an alternative to achieve their strategic goals at a relatively low cost. Consequently, future conflicts may largely be based in a war of narratives, with limited military operations performing only a supportive function to extensive information warfare. Instead of traditional armed conflicts, battles between adversaries can be conducted in diff erent media environments and, instead of tanks and cannons, emotions and beliefs can be used as weapons. Every four years since 2009, Russia has been holding military exercises called “Zapad” (meaning “west” in English) that are always accompanied by an intensified information campaign on the potential military conflict between Russia and NATO in the Baltic Sea Region. This kind of demonstration of power (incl. large-scale military exercises) has become a tool that often shapes the perception of threats related to the anticipated hostile intentions of other actors in the context of a security dilemma. This article examines how the security dilemma in the Baltic Sea region affects the spread of fear, including how large-scale military exercises create an image of an unstable security environment that could at any moment erupt into a full-scale war between the Russian Federation and the West. The article also examines the possible domestic impacts of these military exercises that reinforce the willingness of Russian citizens to defend themselves against anyone who may presumably harbour hostile intentions towards them.