# LASKEMOONALAO RISKIANALÜÜSI METOODIKA VÄLJATÖÖTAMINE FIKTIIVSE LAO NÄITEL

## Authors

• Tõnu Tomberg
• Raul Järviste
• Maarjus Kirs
• Aleks Strazdin
• Siim Eensoo

## Keywords:

ammunition storage, risk assessment and analysis, empirical functions, risk factors, mathematical modelling, fictive ammunition storage

## Abstract

The aim of this article is to introduce a complex risk analysis method for ammunition and explosives storage developed in the Tallinn University of Technology in 2018–19. The basis for this method is to use empirical correlations, which provide trustworthy results even with limited initial data. At the first stage, mathematical models were composed for several purposes: risk modelling and assessment of aboveground storage of 1.1 hazard division (primary type of hazard being mass explosion) explosives and ammunition in earth-covered reinforced concrete ammunition magazines. A mathematical model of fictive ammunition storage was compiled for the purposes of modelling and risk assessment. The storage model consists of four earth-covered reinforced concrete magazines with fictive parameters. The constructional parameters of the magazines, net explosive quantities in each magazine and distances between magazines are easy to adjust in this mathematical model. Physical risk parameters relating to accidental damage to the magazine were considered and include: shockwave, debris and cratering. Each parameter was included in the model, and the resulting risk factor effects and magnitudes were assessed in terms of future magazine design and construction specifications.