KRIIS, OHT JA RISK

CRISIS, THREAT, AND RISK

Abstract

This article elaborates on approaches to crisis and crisis management, and related concepts of threat and risk, as developed within the framework of the Manticus Apollo project commissioned by the Government Office of the Republic of Estonia. The aim of the study is to create a shared conceptual basis and vocabulary to facilitate cooperation between different government agencies operating within the framework of comprehensive defense. The authors define crisis as a situation where the organic resources and capabilities of responsible organizations are insufficient to resolve the situation. Transition to crisis, then, is a matter of political decision to activate reserve components, engage additional resources of other agencies, or apply noncustomary doctrines, tactics or procedures. Threat can be any source of potential damage that could cause considerable harm to individuals, systems or the state as a whole. Risk is defined as a combination of probability of an event and severity of its consequences. While crisis is seen as a process with its formation, culmination, and fading stages, crisis management should be seen as a process with prevention, preparation, reaction and recovery phases. Crisis management, from the perspective of a state, is a continuous and uninterrupted process.