EESTI MEREKAITSE TULEVIKUSTSENAARIUMID

FUTURE MARITIME DEFENCE SCENARIOS IN ESTONIA

Abstract

The problems of organising Estonian maritime defence have been the topic of discussion ever since the country restored independence, but not yet acknowledged on a governmental and societal level, and no substantial reorganisation have been made so far. The objective of this article is to propose two hypothetical and extreme future scenarios that could take place over the next thirty years, both positive and negative, based on the current situation of maritime defence in Estonia. The first (the black scenario) is based on the assumption that there will be negative developments over the next decades, and maritime defence in Estonia will significantly deteriorate. However, the second (the white scenario) is based on the opposite assumption: a positive development will follow and Estonian maritime defence will dramatically improve. The organisation of maritime defence in Estonia is at a crossroads. It is not sustainable in its current state, even in terms of maintaining the existing capabilities, and will create more and more problems over time. The implementation of either scenario depends primarily on the spread of a maritime mind-set. In the case of the black scenario, Estonian maritime geography would continue to be ignored on a governmental and political level, and that includes national defence management. In the case of the positive alternative, national maritime interests would be defined, the management of the maritime sector reorganised, legislations revised, and the necessary reforms implemented to ensure the sovereignty of Estonian sea areas. Another factor is the national organisation of sea surveillance and the compilation of a recognised maritime picture which is a basis for all maritime operations. With the black scenario, it would remain fragmented between different agencies/authorities and the responsibility of sea surveillance would not be regulated on a legislative level. In case of the white scenario, sea surveillance would be assigned to the Defence Forces and they would compile a recognised maritime picture (in accordance with wartime requirements) with stationary and mobile shore radars and vessels permanently displaying the national flag and identifying targets on Estonian sea areas.