FUTURE MARITIME DEFENCE SCENARIOS IN ESTONIA

Abstract

The issues of organising Estonian maritime defence have been subject to publications since Estonia regained independence but have not yet been acknowledged either on a governmental or a societal level and no fundamental rearrangements have been made so far. The objective of this article1 is to propose two extreme hypothetical scenarios in the perspective of the next thirty years, both positive and negative, based on the current state of Estonian maritime defence. The first, black scenario is based on the assumption that the next decades will bring about negative developments and Estonian maritime defence will significantly deteriorate. The second, white scenario is based on the opposite assumption of positive developments and a major improvement in Estonian maritime defence. The distinct difference between the two scenarios should, again, draw attention to the facts that ignoring the issues of Estonian maritime defence may have fatal consequences and that it will be entirely possible to establish a well-functioning maritime defence over the following decades.