HOW TO OUTPLAY A “MAD MAN” STRATEGY: LESSONS FROM RUSSIAN AGGRESSION IN UKRAINE

Abstract

To choose an effective strategy to stop Vladimir Putin and Russia’s aggressive ambitions and imperialistic policy, Western political and military leaders first need to understand Russia’s modus operandi and strategic logic of the Kremlin and Putin’s regime goals. The current article focuses on the hypothesis that Putin is a rational person who is behaving like the Russian version of a “mad man”. In this case, the mad man strategy and other game theory models could be used to force Russian leaders to accept Western demands and analyse the advantages and disadvantages that the Russian version of the mad man strategy would offer to Russia and how the West could respond to it. Why did Putin eventually choose to act in this manner, and could the West have other more beneficial or less violent options on the table? What went wrong in terms of Russian strategy, and how could this be used to force Russia to abandon its aggressive ambitions in Ukraine and in neighboring countries in the post-soviet space? What else can be expected from Putin and his circle, and how should the West respond to Russia’s maneuvers, aggressive policy and Kremlin-backed security threats? The article also contributes to the discussion of how similar “mad man” situations might be interpreted and resolved in future international conflicts.