GERMANY AND EUROPE AFTER THE UKRAINE WAR IN 2025 THREE SCENARIOS

Abstract

As the dynamics of war tend towards escalation, it has to be politically hedged with the goal of war termination and prevention. This is especially valid if, as in the case of the Ukraine war, nuclear powers are directly and indirectly involved. Therefore, it makes sense to think about possible war termination and the period after it has ended, allowing us to analyse trends, challenges, and options. This will be done via three scenario analyses analysed in relation to the following aspects: What happens in and with Russia, in and with Ukraine, and what does this mean for NATO, Europe and Germany? The conclusion outlines the various security policy options available to Germany, depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. First, the outcome of the war will have decisive effects on German and European security. Second, a Ukrainian vic tory comes with a very high risk of nuclear escalation. Third, Russia will remain an important Eastern European neighbour for Germany and EU Europe in terms of geography and potential. Fourth, the USA will remain an indispensable player in European security for the foreseeable future. Fifth, that China plays a significant role in this conflict. Finally, regardless of the scenario, Berlin will have to spend more on its own and European defence.